IMPACT OF HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ON SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY AND DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIAN REGIONS

Resumo

This study evaluates housing affordability across the regions of the Russian Federation as a key indicator of state housing policy effectiveness and its implications for social sustainability and demographic development. The research focuses on identifying regions with the highest and lowest affordability levels, analyzing the influence of developer markups, and assessing affordability trends in primary and secondary housing markets. A quantitative approach was applied to calculate the Housing Affordability Index (HAI) for a single-person household based on the federal standard of 33 m² living space. The analysis used official data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Unified Information System of Housing Construction for 2019–2023. In 2023, the average time required for a single individual to purchase a home was 6.5 years in the primary market and 4.5 years in the secondary market, assuming subsistence-level spending. Affordability declined in most regions, with the sharpest decreases in high-demand areas such as Moscow, Sevastopol, and resort regions. Developer markups increased significantly, averaging 49% in 2023 compared to one-third in 2019, with over 47 regions exceeding the 50% threshold. Only a minority of regions showed improved affordability, primarily due to wage growth outpacing housing price increases. Housing affordability in Russia remains low, with significant regional disparities and rising developer markups contributing to limited access, especially for young people. The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted housing policies that address affordability gaps, control excessive markups, and align housing supply with income growth. Improving affordability is essential for enhancing social stability, encouraging family formation, and supporting demographic sustainability.