POST-SOVIET MIGRATION PROCESSES IN CENTRAL ASIA：A COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY WITHIN THE CENTRAL ASIA–RUSSIA–CHINA MIGRATION SYSTEM (KAZAKHSTAN, KYRGYZSTAN, AND TAJIKISTAN)

Resumo

This study analyzes post-Soviet migration processes in Central Asia through a comparative case study of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan within the Central Asia–Russia–China migration system. Drawing on migration systems theory, the research adopts a structured-focused comparative approach to examine how national structural conditions and institutional access to migration channels shape migration pathways and development outcomes. Using a quantitative–descriptive design, the analysis triangulates World Bank remittance indicators, International Organization for Migration regional reports, and institutional context related to Russia-oriented labor migration and China-oriented selective mobility. The findings reveal substantial cross-national differentiation. Kazakhstan functions as a regional migration hub and partial destination with diversified mobility patterns and limited remittance dependence. Kyrgyzstan relies heavily on Russia-oriented labor migration, with moderate to high remittance dependence and partial diversification toward selective channels. Tajikistan exhibits the highest level of remittance dependence and structural vulnerability, reflecting strong reliance on a single destination corridor. Across cases, Russia-oriented migration provides significant short-term income stabilization, whereas China-oriented migration is smaller in scale but more closely associated with skill formation potential. The study concludes that Central Asian migration operates as a multi-nodal and hierarchical system, with distinct development implications depending on national position. Policy implications stress the need for diversification of migration pathways, improved migration governance, and stronger links between migration and human capital development.