CLIMATE CHANGE MEETS GEOPOLITICS: U.S. ARCTIC POLICY UNDER TRUMP THROUGH THE LENS OF OFFENSIVE REALISM
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18623/rvd.v23.n3.4230Palavras-chave:
Arctic Region, Climate Change, United States Foreign Policy, Donald Trump Presidency, Offensive Realism, International Security, Strategic Competition, Arctic Natural Resources, Environmental Diplomacy, Paris Agreement, Hegemony and PowerResumo
A região do Ártico representa um ponto crítico de interseção entre as mudanças climáticas e a competição estratégica. O derretimento do gelo ártico tornou acessíveis recursos naturais anteriormente inacessíveis e novas rotas marítimas de comércio, ampliando a relevância geopolítica da região. De acordo com o Serviço Geológico dos Estados Unidos (U.S. Geological Survey), uma parcela significativa das reservas globais de petróleo e gás natural está localizada no Ártico, transformando-o de uma área de vulnerabilidade ambiental em um espaço estratégico. Durante a presidência de Donald Trump (2017–2021), os Estados Unidos intensificaram significativamente seu interesse pela região, enquanto regulações ambientais e a diplomacia climática foram enfraquecidas, especialmente com a retirada do Acordo de Paris. Este estudo analisa como as mudanças climáticas influenciaram a política externa dos EUA em relação ao Ártico durante a era Trump, interpretando essas políticas à luz da teoria do realismo ofensivo. Desenvolvido por John Mearsheimer, o realismo ofensivo sustenta que os Estados buscam maximizar poder e alcançar hegemonia regional, e não apenas garantir sua segurança. Com base em análise de conteúdo de documentos estratégicos dos EUA publicados entre 2019 e 2021, o estudo também utiliza análise de cenários para avaliar possíveis trajetórias políticas em um eventual segundo mandato de Trump. Os resultados indicam forte alinhamento com os pressupostos do realismo ofensivo, sugerindo que essa perspectiva tenderia a predominar, enquanto políticas externas equilibradas ou orientadas à cooperação regional permaneceriam limitadas.
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