REVISITING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND GREEN FINANCE: INSIGHTS FROM BAYESIAN REGRESSION

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18623/rvd.v22.n6.3996

Palavras-chave:

Financial Inclusion. Green Finance. Sustainable Development

Resumo

This study investigates the combined effects of financial inclusion and green finance on sustainable development across countries with different levels of financial development during the period 2005 to 2023. Composite indices of financial inclusion and green finance are constructed using principal component analysis, while countries are classified based on the International Monetary Fund Financial Development Index. A Bayesian regression approach is employed to account for parameter uncertainty and ensure robust inference. The results indicate that financial inclusion positively influences sustainable development in both financially developed and financially less developed countries, with a stronger effect in the latter group. Moreover, the interaction between financial inclusion and green finance further enhances sustainable development, particularly in financially less developed economies. These findings suggest that integrating inclusive finance with green financial policies is crucial for achieving sustainable development, especially in countries with shallow financial systems.

Referências

“Ade’Soyemi, K., Olowofela, O. E., & Yunusa, L. A. (2020). Financial inclusion and sustainable development in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Management, 39(1), 105-131.

Adegbite, O. O., & Machethe, C. L. (2020). Bridging the financial inclusion gender gap in smallholder agriculture in Nigeria: An untapped potential for sustainable development. World Development, 127, 104755.

Aguilar-Rivera, N. (2020). Green Gross Domestic Product (Green GDP) and Sustainable Development. In W. Leal Filho, A. M. Azul, L. Brandli, A. Lange Salvia, P. G. Özuyar, & T. Wall (Eds.), Reduced Inequalities (pp. 1-15). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71060-0_72-1

Ahamed, M. M., & Mallick, S. K. (2019). Is financial inclusion good for bank stability? International evidence. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 157, 403-427. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.07.027

Ahmad, D. (2018). Financial inclusion and financial stability: Survey of the Nigeria's financial system.

Ahmad, M., Ahmed, Z., Bai, Y., Qiao, G., Popp, J., & Oláh, J. (2022). Financial Inclusion, Technological Innovations, and Environmental Quality: Analyzing the Role of Green Openness [Original Research]. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.851263

Ahmad, S., Khan, D., & Magda, R. (2022). Assessing the Influence of Financial Inclusion on Environmental Degradation in the ASEAN Region through the Panel PMG-ARDL Approach. Sustainability, 14(12), 7058. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/12/7058

Akanbi, S. a. B., Dauda, R. O., Yusuf, H. A., & Abdulrahman, A. I. (2020). Financial inclusion and monetary policy in West Africa. Journal of Emerging Economies & Islamic Research, 8(2), 1-12.

Arshad, M. U., Ahmed, Z., Ramzan, A., Shabbir, M. N., Bashir, Z., & Khan, F. N. (2021). Financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness: A sustainable development approach of developed and under-developed countries. Plos one, 16(12), e0261337.

Barik, R., & Pradhan, A. K. (2021). Does financial inclusion affect financial stability: evidence from BRICS nations? The journal of developing areas, 55(1).

Buonocore, J. J., Choma, E., Villavicencio, A. H., Spengler, J. D., Koehler, D. A., Evans, J. S., Lelieveld, J., Klop, P., & Sanchez-Pina, R. (2019). Metrics for the sustainable development goals: renewable energy and transportation. Palgrave Communications, 5(1), 136. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0336-4

Chai, B., Gao, J., Pan, L., & Chen, Y. (2021). Research on the Impact Factors of Green Economy of China—From the Perspective of System and Foreign Direct Investment. Sustainability, 13(16), 8741. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/16/8741

Commission, E., Centre, J. R., Papadimitriou, E., Neves, A., & Becker, W. (2019). JRC statistical audit of the Sustainable Development Goals index and dashboards. Publications Office. https://doi.org/doi/10.2760/723763

Cui, L., Weng, S., & Song, M. (2022). Financial inclusion, renewable energy consumption, and inclusive growth: cross-country evidence. Energy Efficiency, 15(6), 43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-022-10051-y

Danisman, G. O., & Tarazi, A. (2020). Financial inclusion and bank stability: Evidence from Europe. The European Journal of Finance, 26(18), 1842-1855.

Dinh L.Q. (2025a). “The Impact of Digital Financial Inclusion on Income Inequality Amid Economic Complexity: A GMM and Bayesian Regression Approach”. Social Responsibility Journal, 21(7), 1383–1400. https://doi.org/10.1108/SRJ-10-2024-0727

Dinh, L. Q. (2025b). The optimal inflation threshold in digital financial inclusion: a key to sustainable development. SN Business & Economics, 5(5), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-025-00810-1

Dinh, L. Q. (2025c). Reassessing the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Environmental Quality in 112 Countries: A Bayesian Quantile Regression Approach. International Social Science Journal. 75(257), 641-659. https://doi.org/10.1111/issj.12577

Dinh L.Q (2025d). Is There a Trade-Off Between Sustainable Development Goals Achievement and Banking Profitability? Evidence From Combined Non-Parametric Methods. Natural Resources Forum. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.70036

Dinh L.Q, Oanh T.T.K, Ha. N.T.H (2025). Enhancing Green Growth: Exploring the Influence of Fiscal Spending and Green Finance. Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldiș” Arad – Economics Series, 35(3), 69-91https://doi.org/10.2478/sues-2025-0013

Desalegn, G., & Tangl, A. (2022). Enhancing Green Finance for Inclusive Green Growth: A Systematic Approach. Sustainability, 14(12), 7416. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/12/7416

Economic, U. N. D. o., & Affairs, S. (2022). The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2022. United Nations. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.18356/9789210018098

Escap, U. (2013). Green growth indicators: A practical approach for Asia and the Pacific.

ESCAP, U., & Scientific, C. (2015). Integrating the three dimensions of sustainable development: A framework and tools.

Feng, H., Liu, Z., Wu, J., Iqbal, W., Ahmad, W., & Marie, M. (2022). Nexus between Government spending’s and Green Economic performance: Role of green finance and structure effect. Environmental Technology & Innovation, 27, 102461. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eti.2022.102461

Flegal, J. M., Haran, M., & Jones, G. L. (2008). Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Can We Trust the Third Significant Figure? Statistical Science, 23(2), 250-260, 211. https://doi.org/10.1214/08-STS257

Fu, W., & Irfan, M. (2022). Does Green Financing Develop a Cleaner Environment for Environmental Sustainability: Empirical Insights From Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economies [Original Research]. Frontiers in Psychology, 13. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.904768

Gelman, A., & Hill, J. (2006). Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models. Cambridge university press.

Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The quarterly journal of economics, 110(2), 353-377.

Guo, C.-Q., Wang, X., Cao, D.-D., & Hou, Y.-G. (2022). The Impact of Green Finance on Carbon Emission--Analysis Based on Mediation Effect and Spatial Effect [Original Research]. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.844988

He, Y., Zhang, J., Feng, J., & Shi, G. (2022). Dynamic Relationship between Green Economy and Energy Utilization Level: Evidence from China. Energies, 15(16), 5927.

Huang, H., & Zhang, J. (2021). Research on the Environmental Effect of Green Finance Policy Based on the Analysis of Pilot Zones for Green Finance Reform and Innovations. Sustainability, 13(7), 3754. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/7/3754

Kim, O. T. T., & Quoc, D. L. (2024). Exploring the influence of digital financial inclusion and technological progress on renewable energy consumption: a Bayesian quantile regression analysis. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-05675-2

Khoi, N.T, & Dinh, L.Q (2025). Digital Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Development in ASEAN: Insights from Monte Carlo Simulations. Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy. https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.70002

Huy, N. Q., & Dinh, L. Q. (2025a). Balancing Bank Profits With Sustainable Development Goals: Examining the Pivotal Role of Financial Stability. Sustainable Development, 33(S1), 1182-1199. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.70057

Huy, N. Q., & Dinh, L. Q. (2025b). The Financial Inclusion-SDGS Nexus: Evidence from ASEAN. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 20(9), 4051-4061. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.200934

Huy, N. Q., & Loan, N. T. (2022). Factors affecting green credit development at commercial banks in Vietnam. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies Vol 13 (12). http://doi.org/10.14456/ITJEMAST.2022.249

Huy, N. Q., Nga, L. P., & Tam, P. T. (2024). An Empirical Analysis of Bank Capital Adequacy Ratio in Vietnam: A Data Science Approach Using System Generalized Method of Moments. Journal of Applied Data Sciences, 5(1), 56-70. https://doi.org/10.47738/jads.v5i1.156

Huy, N., Nga, L., & Tam, P. (2023a). Applying Structural Equation Modeling for Accessing Mobile Banking Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction: A Case Study in Vietnam. Journal of Applied Data Sciences, 4(4), 346-362. doi: https://doi.org/10.47738/jads.v4i4.137

Huy, N., Nga, L., & Tam, P. (2023b). Applied Regression Modelling to Recommend Microfinance Development Policies. Journal of Applied Data Sciences, 4(4), 333-345. doi: https://doi.org/10.47738/jads.v4i4.139

Huy, N., & Tam, P. (2025). Applied Data Science for Analyzing the Mediating Role of Digital Transformation Influencing Banking Business Efficiency in Vietnam. Journal of Applied Data Sciences, 6(3), 2031-2045. doi: https://doi.org/10.47738/jads.v6i3.807

Le Quoc, D., Nguyen Quoc, H., & Nguyen Van, H. (2025). Evaluating the influence of digital financial inclusion on financial crises and economic cycles: a Bayesian logistic regression insight. 33(2), 280-301. Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFRC-10-2024-0206

Le Quoc, D. (2024). The relationship between digital financial inclusion, gender inequality, and economic growth: dynamics from financial development. Journal of Business and Socio-Economic Development, 4(4), 370-388. https://doi.org/10.1108/JBSED-12-2023-0101

Initiative, C. B. (2019). Green bond market summary. URL: https://www. climatebonds. net/files/reports/2019_annual_highlights-final. pdf.

Jiang, L., Wang, H., Tong, A., Hu, Z., Duan, H., Zhang, X., & Wang, Y. (2020). The Measurement of Green Finance Development Index and Its Poverty Reduction Effect: Dynamic Panel Analysis Based on Improved Entropy Method. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2020, 8851684. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8851684

Jungo, J., Madaleno, M., & Botelho, A. (2022a). The Effect of Financial Inclusion and Competitiveness on Financial Stability: Why Financial Regulation Matters in Developing Countries? Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(3), 122.

Jungo, J., Madaleno, M., & Botelho, A. (2022b). The Relationship between Financial Inclusion and Monetary Policy: A Comparative Study of Countries’ in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. Journal of African Business, 23(3), 794-815. https://doi.org/10.1080/15228916.2021.1930810

Kruschke, J. (2014). Doing Bayesian data analysis: A tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan.

Li, Y., Li, H., Chang, M., Qiu, S., Fan, Y., Razzaq, H. K., & Sun, Y. (2022). Green energy investment, renewable energy consumption, and carbon neutrality in China. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 1276.

Liu, N., Liu, C., Xia, Y., Ren, Y., & Liang, J. (2020). Examining the Coordination Between Green Finance and Green Economy Aiming for Sustainable Development: A Case Study of China. Sustainability, 12(9), 3717. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/9/3717

Lv, K., Yu, S., Fu, D., Wang, J., Wang, C., & Pan, J. (2022). The Impact of Financial Development and Green Finance on Regional Energy Intensity: New Evidence from 30 Chinese Provinces. Sustainability, 14(15), 9207. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/15/9207

Maher, S. (2022). Financial Inclusion and Monetary Policy-Investigating the Relationship between Financial Inclusion and Monetary Policy: The Case of Egypt.

Midilli, A., Dincer, I., & Ay, M. (2006). Green energy strategies for sustainable development. Energy Policy, 34(18), 3623-3633.

Mo, Y., Sun, D., & Zhang, Y. (2023). Green Finance Assists Agricultural Sustainable Development: Evidence from China. Sustainability, 15(3), 2056. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/3/2056

Ngo, T. Q., Doan, P. N., Vo, L. T., Tran, H. T. T., & Nguyen, D. N. (2021). The influence of green finance on economic growth: A COVID-19 pandemic effects on Vietnam Economy. Cogent Business & Management, 8(1), 2003008.

Nguyen Quoc, H., Nguyen Van, H., & Le Quoc, D. (2025). Exploring the Determinants of Renewable Energy Consumption: A Bayesian Monte Carlo Simulation Analysis of Technology, Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions, and Digital Financial Inclusion. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15(5), 103–113. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.20133

Quoc, H. N., Le Quoc, D., & Van, H. N. (2025a). Assessing digital financial inclusion and financial crises: The role of financial development in shielding against shocks. Heliyon, 11(1), e41231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e41231

Quoc, H. N., Van, H. N., & Le Quoc, D. (2025b). Unraveling the Nexus between Sustainable Development, Bank Profitability, and Loan Loss Provisions in Vietnam: A Bayesian Vector Autoregression Perspective. Research on World Agricultural Economy, 6(2), 123–139. https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v6i2.1444

Quoc, H.N., Van, H.N. & Le Quoc, D (2025c). Financial inclusion in the digital era and its impact on sustainable development across ASEAN countries through combined nonparametric methods. Discover Sustainability, 6, 1378. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-02439-4

Quoc, H.N., Quoc, D.L. (2025). Linkages Between Primary Sector Value Added, Financial Development, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vanuatu. Research on World Agricultural Economy. 6(4): 610-626. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v6i4.2643

OECD. (2017). Boosting Skills for Greener Jobs in Flanders, Belgium. https://doi.org/doi:https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264265264-en

Ozili, P. (2022). Green finance research around the world: a review of literature. International Journal of Green Economics, 16. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGE.2022.10048432

Ozili, P. K. (2022). Financial inclusion and sustainable development: an empirical association. Journal of Money and Business(ahead-of-print).

Porter, M. E., & Linde, C. v. d. (1995). Toward a new conception of the environment-competitiveness relationship. Journal of economic perspectives, 9(4), 97-118.

Rahman, S., Moral, I. H., Hassan, M., Hossain, G. S., & Perveen, R. (2022). A systematic review of green finance in the banking industry: perspectives from a developing country. Green Financ, 4, 347-363.

Sasmaz, M. U., Sakar, E., Yayla, Y. E., & Akkucuk, U. (2020). The Relationship between Renewable Energy and Human Development in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. Sustainability, 12(18), 7450. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/18/7450

Saydaliev, H. B., & Chin, L. (2022). Role of green financing and financial inclusion to develop the cleaner environment for macroeconomic stability: Inter-temporal analysis of ASEAN economies. Economic Change and Restructuring, 1-21.

Schmidt-Traub, G., Kroll, C., Teksoz, K., Durand-Delacre, D., & Sachs, J. (2017). SDG Index and Dashboards 2017.

Stjepanovic, S., Tomic, D., & Skare, M. (2022). A new database on Green GDP; 1970-2019: a framework for assessing the green economy. Oeconomia Copernicana, 13(4), 949-975.

Stjepanović, S., Tomić, D., & Škare, M. (2019). Green GDP: An analyses for developing and developed countries.

Tay, L.-Y., Tai, H.-T., & Tan, G.-S. (2022). Digital financial inclusion: A gateway to sustainable development. Heliyon, e09766.

Tufail, M., Song, L., Umut, A., Ismailova, N., & Kuldasheva, Z. (2022). Does financial inclusion promote a green economic system? Evaluating the role of energy efficiency. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 6780-6800. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2053363

Ullah, S., Ali, K., Shah, S. A., & Ehsan, M. (2022). Environmental concerns of financial inclusion and economic policy uncertainty in the era of globalization: evidence from low & high globalized OECD economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(24), 36773-36787. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-18758-2

Vo, A. T., Van, L. T.-H., Vo, D. H., & McAleer, M. (2019). Financial inclusion and macroeconomic stability in emerging and frontier markets. Annals of Financial Economics, 14(02), 1950008.

Voica, M. C. (2017). Financial inclusion as a tool for sustainable development. In Financial inclusion as a tool for sustainable development: Voica, Marian Cătălin.

Van, H. N., & Le Quoc, D. (2024). Assessing the impact of digital financial inclusion on sustainable development goals: Analyzing differences by financial development levels across countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-02515-6

Van, H. N., Quoc, H. N., & Le Quoc, D. (2025a). The role of green credit in promoting sustainable development in vietnam: evidence from quantile-ON-quantile regression. Research on World Agricultural Economy, 6(1), 88–99. https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v6i1.1399

Van, H. N., Quoc, H. N., & Le Quoc, D. (2025b). Towards Sustainable Development: Drivers From Financial and Institutional Development. Journal of Public Affairs, 25(3), e70073. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.70073

Tuyet, N.T.B., Dinh, L.Q. (2025). The role of economic freedom and institutional quality in driving sustainable development: Comparative evidence from developed and developing economies. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 20(7), 2963-2972. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.200720

Wang, Y.-l. (2021). Research on the relationship between green energy use, carbon emissions and economic growth in Henan province. Frontiers in Energy Research, 9, 701551.

Wu, Z., Zhang, C., Li, Y., Xu, C., Wang, Y., & Chen, G. (2023). Environmental governance investment and Air Quality: Based on China’s provincial panel data. ESG investment and its societal impacts, 16648714, 192.

Yue, S., Yang, Y., & Hu, Y. (2016). Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Green Growth? Evidence from China’s Experience. Sustainability, 8(2), 158. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/2/158

Zhang, C., Cheng, X., & Ma, Y. (2022). Research on the impact of green finance policy on regional green innovation-based on evidence from the pilot zones for green finance reform and innovation. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 762.

Zhang, Z., Liu, Y., Han, Z., & Liao, X. (2022). Green Finance and Carbon Emission Reduction: A Bibliometric Analysis and Systematic Review [Original Research]. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.929250

Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, M., Peeters, M., Depaoli, S., & Van de Schoot, R. (2017). Where Do Priors Come From? Applying Guidelines to Construct Informative Priors in Small Sample Research. Research in Human Development, 14(4), 305-320. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427609.2017.1370966

Downloads

Publicado

2025-12-16

Como Citar

Huy, N. Q., & Dinh, L. Q. (2025). REVISITING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND GREEN FINANCE: INSIGHTS FROM BAYESIAN REGRESSION. Veredas Do Direito , 22, e223996. https://doi.org/10.18623/rvd.v22.n6.3996