DETERMINANTS OF EXPORT-ORIENTED PRODUCTION IN THAILAND’S REFINED PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18623/rvd.v23.5618Palabras clave:
Energy Industry, Petroleum Product Exports, Multiple Linear Regression Model, Petroleum Refining Industry, Asia-Pacific Energy MarketResumen
This study aims to analyze the factors influencing export-oriented production within Thailand’s refined petroleum product industry. The analysis is based on monthly time-series data covering the period from January 2021 to May 2025, totaling 53 observations. The empirical analysis employs a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model to examine the relationships between petroleum product export indices and overall export performance in the petroleum refining industry. The results indicate that several variables significantly influence the export index for the production of refined petroleum products in Thailand. These include the export indices of high-speed diesel, aviation fuel, kerosene, fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and naphtha. The estimated model demonstrates a high level of explanatory power, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 98.9 percent and an adjusted R² of 98.8 percent. The findings suggest that major fuel products play a crucial role in determining the export capacity of Thailand’s petroleum refining industry. In particular, variations in the production and export performance of key fuel products significantly contribute to the dynamics of petroleum export activity. These results highlight the importance of refinery product structure and production allocation in shaping export performance. The study also provides empirical insights that may support strategic planning for refinery operations and export development within Thailand’s petroleum industry.
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