FUTURE TRAJECTORIES OF THE IRAN–ISRAEL BALANCE OF THREAT IN THE CONTEXT OF CONTEMPORARY CONFLICT TRANSFORMATIONS

Resumen

This study examines the future trajectories of the threat balance between Iran and Israel against the backdrop of contemporary conflict transformations in the Middle East, drawing on the Balance of Threat Theory as an explanatory framework that transcends traditional balance-of-power logic. The study proceeds from the premise that the conflict is managed within a complex engagement environment in which indirect confrontation, multi-arena dynamics, and an expanded role for non-state actors intersect, rendering deterrence and rules of engagement subject to continuous recalibration. It employs two principal drivers: the nature of the American position—whether supportive of Israeli operations or restraining—and the extent to which Iran and Israel resort to direct use of force versus self-restraint. In light of these drivers, the study proposes three plausible trajectories: Equilibrium Stability, based on controlled mutual deterrence; Equilibrium Adjustment, through calculated escalation to recalibrate the threat balance; and Equilibrium Drift toward a broad comprehensive confrontation. The study concludes that Equilibrium Adjustment is the most likely trajectory in the near-to-medium term, while Equilibrium Stability remains contingent on the persistence of escalation brakes, and comprehensive Equilibrium Drift remains a limited but real possibility given the fragility of the regional environment.