POST-ASSAD SYRIA AND JORDAN'S EVOLVING SECURITY LANDSCAPE

Resumen

This article examines Jordan’s evolving security landscape in the aftermath of the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. It investigates how the rapid political transition, territorial reconfigurations, and the rise of non-state armed actors have reshaped regional security dynamics with direct implications for Jordan. The study applies a qualitative research design grounded in process tracing to uncover causal pathways linking developments inside Syria to shifts in Jordan’s national security calculus. Drawing on secondary data, policy reports, field analyses, and open-source intelligence, the article identifies four critical mechanisms of spillover: cross-border militancy, refugee pressures, border economy disruptions, and shifts in regional power alignments. The analysis shows that Jordan’s security challenges are not merely episodic outcomes of Syria’s conflict but are structurally embedded in the geopolitical interdependence of the Levant. The findings contribute to conflict studies by offering a mechanism-based explanation of how regime collapse triggers security externalities in neighboring states. The article concludes that Jordan requires a multidimensional strategy combining border securitization, diplomatic hedging, and economic resilience to navigate the uncertainties of Syria’s transition phase.