EXTREME VALUE THEORY TO COVID-19 DATA: PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF DAILY NEW CASES AND DEATHS IN BRAZIL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18623/rvd.v23.5385Keywords:
COVID-19, Extreme Value Theory, Block Maxima Method, Public Health, Probabilistic AnalysisAbstract
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), has strongly impacted global public health and healthcare systems. In this context, mathematical modeling is essential for understanding extreme events related to the disease, thereby contributing to the prevention and mitigation of its most severe impacts. This study applied Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to the analysis of new COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil, estimating the probability of future extreme events and their expected maximum values over monthly and biweekly intervals. Official daily data from Our World in Data, affiliated with the University of Oxford, were used, covering the period from 2020 to 2022. Among the methods evaluated, the Block Maxima approach proved to be the most suitable, providing more accurate estimates of the observed extreme values. The results showed that EVT was effective in identifying extreme patterns in emerging diseases, enabling accurate estimates to support public health planning.
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