GLOBAL GRAPES MARKET STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS AND THE ROLE AND POLICY IMPLICATION FOR AFGHANISTAN

Abstract

This study assesses the market structure of the grapes exports, as generally grapes are distinguished as total grapes (HS 806), fresh grapes (HS 080610), and dried grapes (HS 080620), with a particular focus on the relative position of Afghanistan in the global market structure. The study used time series data between 2008 and 2024 for market share analyses and market concentration measures such as CRn (CR4 and CR8) ratios and HHI index for evaluating market competitiveness and concentration degree. The findings of the study show that the global market for total grapes and fresh grapes is largely competitive and diversified in structure. Moderate concentration in both CR4 and CR8 levels, but a low value of HHI. In comparison, the study finds that the dried grapes or raisin market is concentrated moderately to high, as oligopolistic condition which is dominated by some limited major exporters. Afghanistan plays a crucial role in all commodities, but in grapes, it is relatively more crucial, with a relatively small market share in total and fresh grapes but a better market share in dried grapes, which indicates an emerging position for Afghanistan as a mid-tier exporter in dried grapes. The findings suggest that, for Afghanistan, some key policy changes in grapes' international trade are required as the level of concentration increases with the degree of processing. That is why the study suggests that Afghanistan should focus on product differentiation and implement a product differentiation policy for each commodity, emphasizing reduction of cost and efficiency in logistics, preserving new investors in dried grapes, development, certification, and quality upgrading.