ASEAN’S ADAPTIVE STRATEGY IN THE CONTEXT OF U.S.–CHINA COMPETITION IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

Abstract

Amid intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China, Southeast Asian countries operating within the ASEAN institutional framework confront pressing imperatives to craft foreign policies that simultaneously safeguard national interests and prevent entrapment in the confrontation between the two superpowers. This article examines ASEAN’s adoption of a “hedging” strategy as a dynamic model of flexible balancing, combining cooperation and counterbalance to preserve strategic autonomy, strengthen internal capacity, and sustain regional stability. Drawing upon international relations theory and empirical evidence from ASEAN documents, speeches, and member states’ policy statements, the study develops an analytical framework structured around four key pillars of hedging: Blunting, understood as the enhancement of defense capabilities; Broadening, reflected in the diversification of strategic partnerships; Boosting, manifested in the reinforcement of multilateral institutions; and Binding, expressed through the advancement of common interests with both major powers. Three case studies: Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia, are employed to illustrate the diversity of approaches and the practical implementation of hedging strategies among ASEAN members. The analysis demonstrates that hedging constitutes a pragmatic and adaptive response, enabling ASEAN to avoid dependency on or direct confrontation with any great power. Nevertheless, the findings also reveal persistent challenges, including internal divisions, external pressures, and institutional constraints. The article concludes by recommending that ASEAN strengthen its collective strategic planning, enhance internal coordination, and expand multilateral cooperation in order to sustain its central role within the evolving regional architecture.