ENHANCING FOOD SECURITY TO IMPLEMENT THE PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

This study assesses the relationship between food inflation, domestic supply factors, and consumer demand in Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries. The analysis uses a balanced panel of 25 observations for Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia over 2018–2022, compiled from data provided by the Eurasian Economic Commission and national statistical authorities. Pooled ordinary least squares, fixed-effects, and random-effects models were estimated in Gretl. Model comparison was supplemented by sequential elimination of redundant regressors. The most consistent finding was a positive association between the food consumer price index and agricultural and food producer prices. The reduced model also identified a positive association with the share of household expenditure allocated to food and a negative association with the retail turnover index; all three coefficients were significant at the 5% level. The model explains 73.1% of the variation in the dependent variable. No statistically significant associations were found with the production index, import prices, or real wage growth. The demand-side indicators were not jointly significant at the 5% level in the full model. These findings do not support attributing food inflation exclusively to domestic demand or ruling out external price pressures. The study contributes a joint assessment of production, price, and consumption indicators across five countries and identifies indicators for monitoring food markets. The estimates remain preliminary because of the small panel and uncertainty regarding one retail turnover value; the associations are not interpreted as causal.