GEOPOLITICAL RISK, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, AND ENERGY TRANSITION: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY IN MENA ECONOMIES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18623/rvd.v23.7993Keywords:
Geopolitical Risk, Agricol Production Indice, Co2 Emission, Energy, NARDL ModelAbstract
Food security remains one of the world's most pressing challenges, shaped by the complex interplay of population growth, limited resources, and a changing climate. This study analyzes the combined impact of economic, demographic, and environmental factors on food security. Using a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, we specifically examine how positive and negative changes in these factors create asymmetric effects over time. We argue that these dimensions are deeply interconnected, and their combined effects must be addressed together. Our findings indicate that food insecurity is a universal threat. It not only impacts the most vulnerable and impoverished communities but also poses a significant risk to newly emerging economies. The analysis confirms that these factors influence food security in an uneven manner, meaning that positive and negative shocks have different impacts. Addressing this urgent issue requires swift and coordinated policy interventions from both international and national policymakers.
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